'Scary' Warming at Poles Showing Up at Weird Times, Places

可怕的極地暖化出乎意料地降臨

Scientists are seeing surprising melting in Earth's polar regions at times they don't expect, like winter, and in places they don't expect, like eastern Antarctica.

科學家正目睹地球極地(polar)驚人的冰融現象，而且冰融的時間和地點皆始料未及，比如在冬天和南極(Antarctica)的東部。

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'Scary' Warming at Poles Showing Up at Weird Times, Places
VOA News
December 11, 2018 9:14 PM Associated Press (source)

'Scary' Warming at Poles Showing Up at Weird Times, Places

可怕的極地暖化出乎意料地降臨

December 11, 2018 9:14 PM

Associated Press

Scientists are seeing surprising melting in Earth's polar regions at times they don't expect, like winter, and in places they don't expect, like eastern Antarctica.

New studies and reports issued this week at a major Earth sciences conference paint one of the bleakest pictures yet of dramatic warming in the Arctic and Antarctica. Alaskan scientists described to The Associated Press on Tuesday never-before-seen melting and odd winter problems, including permafrost that never refroze this past winter and wildlife die-offs.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration on Tuesday released its annual Arctic report card, detailing the second warmest year on record in the Arctic and problems, including record low winter sea ice in parts of the region, increased toxic algal blooms, which are normally a warm water phenomenon, and weather changes in the rest of the country attributable to what's happening in the far North.

"The Arctic is experiencing the most unprecedented transition in human history," report lead author Emily Osborne, chief of Arctic research for NOAA, said Tuesday.

'A new Arctic'

What's happening is a big deal, said University of Colorado environmental science program director Waleed Abdalati, NASA's former chief scientist who was not part of the NOAA report.

"It's a new Arctic. We've gone from white to blue," said Abdalati, adding that he normally wouldn't use the word "scary" but it applies.

And that means other problems.

"Continued warming of the Arctic atmosphere and ocean are driving broad change in the environmental system in predicted, and, also, unexpected ways," the NOAA report said.

One of the most noticeable problems was a record low sea ice in winter in the Bering Sea in 2017 and 2018, scientists said.

In February the Bering Sea "lost an area of ice the area of Idaho," said Dartmouth College engineering professor Donald Perovich, a report card co-author.

This is a problem because the oldest and thickest sea ice is down 95 percent from 30 years ago. In 1985, about one-sixth of Arctic sea ice was thick multi-year ice, now it is maybe one-hundredth, Perovich said.

University of Alaska Fairbanks marine mammal biologist Gay Sheffield not only studies the record low ice, but she lives it daily in Nome, far north on the Bering Sea.

"I left Nome and we had open water in December," Sheffield said at the American Geophysical Union conference in Washington. "It's very much impacting us."

"Having this area ice free is having this massive environmental change," Sheffield said, adding there's been a "multi-species die off" of ocean life. She said that includes the first spring mass die off of seals along the Bering Strait.

Shrinking permafrost

Ornithologist George Divoky, who has been studying the black guillemots of Cooper Island for 45 years, noticed something different this year. In the past, 225 nesting pairs of the seabirds would arrive at his island. This past winter it was down to 85 pairs, but only 50 laid eggs and only 25 had successful hatches.

He blamed the lack of winter sea ice.

"It looked like a ghost town," Divoky said.

With overall melting, especially in the summer, herds of caribou and wild reindeer have dropped about 55 percent — from 4.7 million to 2.1 million animals — because of the warming and the flies and parasites it brings, said report card co-author Howard Epstein of the University of Virginia.

University of Alaska Fairbanks researcher Vladimir Romanovsky said he was alarmed by what happened to the permafrost — ground that stays frozen years on end. This past year, Romanovsky found 25 spots that used to freeze in January, then February, but never froze this year.

Because of warming, the Arctic is "seeing concentrations of algal toxins moving northward" — infecting birds, mammals and shellfish to become a public health and economic problem, said report card co-author Karen Frey.

And the warmer Arctic and melting sea ice has been connected to shifts in the jet stream that have brought extreme winter storms in the East in the past year, Osborne said.

But it's not just the Arctic. NASA's newest space-based radar, Icesat 2, in its first couple of months has already found that the Dotson ice shelf in Antarctica has lost more than 390 feet (120 meters) in thickness since 2003, said radar scientist Ben Smith of the University of Washington.

Another study released Monday by NASA found unusual melting in parts of East Antarctica, which scientists had generally thought was stable.

Four glaciers at Vincennes Bay lost nine feet of ice thickness since 2008, said NASA scientists Catherine Walker and Alex Gardner.

Loss of ice sheets in Antarctica could lead to massive rise in sea level.

"We're starting to see change that's related to the ocean," Gardner said. "Believe it or not this is the first time we're seeing it in this place."
 

科學家正目睹地球極地(polar)驚人的冰融現象，而且冰融的時間和地點皆始料未及，比如在冬天和南極(Antarctica)的東部。

地球科學領域一項重要研討會在這週（編按：2018 年 12 月 9 日至 15 日）發行(issue)的研究報告將北極(Arctic)和南極戲劇性的暖化現象描繪成(paint a picture of . . .)有史以來最為無希望的(bleak)情況之一。阿拉斯加的（Alaskan）科學家週二（編按：2018 年 12 月 11 日）向美國聯合通訊社（Associated Press，AP；簡稱「美聯社」）描述了前所未見的冰融現象與冬季出現的異常問題，包括永凍土(permafrost)在剛過去的這個冬天不再結凍(refreeze)，以及野生動植物相繼死亡(die-off)。

美國國家海洋暨大氣總署（National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration，NOAA；以下簡稱「國家海洋與氣象局」）週二（編按：2018 年 12 月 11 日）發表(release)了今年度的北極報告（Artic report card），詳細描述(detail)北極在今年出現史上(on record)第 2 高溫以及伴隨而來的問題，包含該地某些區域冬季的海冰（sea ice）數量達史上最低，通常因水溫上升導致的有毒的(toxic)藻華(algal bloom)現象亦增加，且全美各地出現的天氣變化也導因於(attributable to . . .)北極地區升溫。

〔編按：今年（2018）的北極報告請參考網頁資料 Artic Report Card: Update for 2018。〕 

這份報告的主要作者艾蜜莉．奧斯本（Emily Osborne）於週二（編按：2018 年 12 月 11 日）表示：「北極地區正經歷人類史上空前的(unprecedented)轉變(transition)。」她是國家海洋與氣象局北極研究計畫的主持人。

「新北極」

美國科羅拉多大學（University of Colorado）環境科學課程的主任瓦里得‧阿布德拉底（Waleed Abdalati）指出，目前北極地區正在發生的變化至關重要。他曾是美國國家航空暨太空總署（National Aeronautics and Space Administration，NASA；以下簡稱「美國太空總署」）的資深科學家，並未參與此次國家海洋與氣象局的研究報告。

「我們看到了冰融後的北極新面貌，從白色的冰雪覆蓋變成藍色的海水。」阿布德拉底表示，並補充說他通常不會用「可怕」這種字眼形容現象，但卻非常符合目前的情況。

這也意味著還有其他問題。

國家海洋與氣象局的研究報告顯示：「北極地區空氣與海洋溫度持續上升正使得環境系統產生預期和不預期的大範圍改變。」

科學家指出，最顯而易見的(noticeable)問題之一就是白令海（Bering Sea）的海冰量在 2017 與 2018 這兩年的冬季都達到有史以來最低。

今年（編按：2018 年）二月白令海「流失的海冰面積如愛達荷州（Idaho）那麼大」，美國達特茅斯學院（Dartmouth College）工程學教授唐納‧佩羅維奇（Donald Perovich）說道。他是北極報告的共同作者。

海冰流失會成為問題的原因在於過去 30 年來，最古老且最厚的海冰已減少了 95%。北極地區 1985 年時古老厚實的海冰約占了六分之一，但如今可能只剩下百分之一，佩羅維奇如此說明。

蓋伊．雪菲爾（Gay Sheffield）是美國阿拉斯加大學費爾班克斯分校（University of Alaska Fairbanks）的海洋哺乳動物(mammal)生物學家。她不僅研究最低海冰量，還住在白令海北岸遠處的阿拉斯加諾姆市（Nome），每天與海冰為伍。

「我 12 月時離開諾姆市，那時水面沒有結冰。」雪菲爾在華府（Washington）的美國地球物理聯盟（American Geophysical Union，AGU）會議上表示：「這對我們影響(impact)很大。」

雪菲爾解釋道：「這個地區沒有結冰顯示出環境正經歷巨大的(massive)變化。」她接著指出，海洋生物已有「許多物種相繼死亡」，其中包括了白令海峽(strait)沿岸首次發生的海豹(seal)春季大(mass)滅亡。

逐漸縮小的(shrinking)永凍層

鳥類學家(ornithologist)喬治‧迪沃基（George Divoky）已研究庫珀島（Cooper Island）上的黑海鳩(guillemot)長達 45 年，他注意到今年的生態有些不同。以往會有 225 對海鳥(seabird)在島上築巢，然而剛過去的這個冬天數量卻減少至 85 對，其中僅有 50 對產卵，且僅僅 25 對成功孵化。他將此現象歸咎於缺乏冬季海冰。

「（庫珀島）看起來就像一座廢棄的孤城般。」迪沃基形容。

美國維吉尼亞大學（University of Virginia）的生態學教授霍華‧艾普斯坦（Howard Epstein）表示，整體冰融，尤其是夏季的冰融，導致了暖化並帶來蒼蠅和寄生蟲(parasite)，這已造成北美馴鹿(caribou)群和野生馴鹿(reindeer)群數量下降約 55%，從 470 萬隻減少至 210 萬隻。艾普斯坦也是北極報告的共同作者。

弗拉迪米爾‧羅曼諾夫斯基（Vladimir Romanovsky）是阿拉斯加大學費爾班克斯分校的研究員。他透漏，連續(on end)好幾年處於冰凍狀態的永凍土出現了變化，令他感到憂慮(alarm)。他過去一年來發現，以往會在一、二月結冰的永凍土今年共有 25 處未曾結冰。

同為北極報告共同作者的凱倫‧弗萊（Karen Frey）指出，暖化使得北極地區出現藻毒素(toxin)聚集(concentration)，並且向北方移動，傳染(infect)給鳥類、哺乳類和甲殼類水生動物(shellfish)，因而造成公共衛生和經濟上的問題。

奧斯本說，較溫暖的北極以及融化的海冰與噴射氣流(jet stream)的方向改變(shift)有關，而這樣的改變已在去年為美國東部帶來了極端的冬季風暴。

然而，影響因素不單是北極而已。美國華盛頓大學（University of Washington）的雷達科學家班‧史密斯（Ben Smith）表示，美國太空總署最新的太空雷達「Icesat 2」在任務執行最初的兩個月就發現南極多特森（Dotson）冰棚(ice shelf)的厚度自 2003 年以來已減少了 390 英尺（120公尺）。

［編按：太空雷達名稱「Icesat」是「Ice, Cloud and land Elevation Satellite」的縮寫。］

科學家過去一向認為南極東部的冰層很穩定，然而週一（編按：2018 年 12 月 10 日）發布的研究結果卻顯示此區的某些地帶出現不尋常的冰融現象。

美國太空總署的科學家凱薩琳‧沃克（Catherine Walker）與艾力克斯‧加德納（Alex Gardner）指出，南極文森灣（Vincennes Bay）4 條冰河(glaciers)的厚度自 2008 年起已減少 9 英尺。

南極冰原(ice sheet)流失可能造成海平面的大幅上升。

「現在開始看到和海洋有關的變化了。」加德納說。「你相信嗎？這是我們第一次在這種地方看到這樣的改變。」

〔編按：本篇新聞相關報導請參考美國「全國公共廣播電台」（National Public Radio，NPR）節目「On Point」於 2018 年 12 月 13 日的報導 Arctic Warming Pushes The Region — And Planet — Into Uncharted Territory。〕