Election Experts Puzzled Over Surprise Trump Victory
VOA News
November 09, 2016 2:40 PM Wayne Lee (source)
Election Experts Puzzled Over Surprise Trump Victory
川普意外勝選，選舉專家仍不解
November 09, 2016 2:40 PM
Wayne Lee
Many elections experts are trying to decipher Donald Trump's surprising presidential victory that defied most poll projections as he chalked up wins in states that have favored Democrats in past elections.
"He did extremely well in small towns and rural areas,” Emory University political expert Alan Abramowitz told VOA, “and just generally was able to capitalize on this anger and frustration out there among a pretty large segment of the electorate, mainly white voters without a college degree, who felt they've been ignored and perhaps also who resent that they see immigrants and minorities taking their jobs or getting advantages they don't get.”
Trump's strong performance in rural America was enough to offset the heavy turnout among urban voters who cast ballots for Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton.
And although Abramowitz remains skeptical, he said preliminary data suggest Trump fared relatively well among minorities.
"According to the exit polls, he actually did a little bit better with African-Americans and even Latinos than Mitt Romney did four years ago," he said.
Abramowitz said the polls in key swing states the Republican presidential candidate won — such as Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan — were particularly inaccurate, while polls in Florida were "pretty close."
The American Association for Public Opinion Research, which represents polling professionals, is at a loss over how most polls miscalculated the election results.
"It looks like a fairly serious miss on the part of the industry and nobody's really sure yet what happened," said association President Roger Tourangeau in an interview with VOA.
Most pollsters underestimated the nationwide vote, and in the swing states of Wisconsin, Michigan, Florida, Pennsylvania and Ohio by 2 to 4 percentage points, according to Pennsylvania State University polling expert Eric Plutzer. He said those polling results appear to be outside the traditional bounds of margin of error.
"The error is magnified by the fact that Trump won the Electoral College by a comfortable margin, even though he has apparently lost the popular vote,” Plutzer told VOA.
The American Association for Public Opinion Research said it will study the election results and issue an official report on its findings early next year.
Association president Tourangeau told VOA it will determine whether there are systemic biases in who is selected to participate in surveys, confirm suspected systemic differences in the modes used to conduct polls (i.e., live telephone interviews, automated phone calls or online panels), and find out whether voters were underreporting their support for Trump.
"A lot of people have been speculating about shy Trump supporters, claiming they vote for Clinton but were in fact voting for Trump," Tourangeau said.
Whatever the conclusions are in the association's upcoming report, Plutzer said future demand for polling is expected to remain as strong as ever.
"The public's insatiable demand for polls, there were over 1,000 national horse-race polls in this election, is unlikely to disappear," he said.
But Plutzer added the polling industry will be forced to develop innovative polls that try to understand how ordinary voters think rather than just trying to determine where candidates stand in their efforts to win elections.
美國共和黨總統候選人唐納‧川普(Donald Trump)在這次總統選舉的勝選相當令人意外，他在過去幾次選舉中皆偏向民主黨的州贏得了勝利(chalk up wins)，違反(defy)了大多數的民調預測。選舉專家們現正試著解讀(decipher)其勝選原因。
埃默里大學(Emory University)的政治分析專家艾倫‧厄伯莫維茲(Alan Abramowitz)於《美國之音》(VOA)的專訪中表示：「川普在城鎮和農業區表現得非常好。這次全體選民(electorate)中有相當大的一塊，主要是大學學歷以下的白人選民，他們感到被忽視，也覺得工作和利益都被移民與少數族群搶走了，對此感到憤恨(resent)。川普大致上是從這種選民的憤怒感與挫折感中得到了好處(capitalize on . . .)。」
川普在農業區強勁的表現足以抵銷(offset)都會區投給民主黨總統候選人希拉蕊‧柯林頓(Hillary Clinton)的高投票人數(turnout)。
厄伯莫維茲表示，由初步的資料顯示，川普在少數族群中的表現，相對來說還不錯(fare well)，儘管他對此仍有所懷疑(skeptical)。
他表示：「根據出口民調(exit poll)，川普在非洲裔，甚至是拉丁裔選民中的表現，事實上比四年前米特‧羅姆尼(Mitt Romney)還好上一些。」（編按：出口民調即「票站調查」，是一種在投票站出口訪問剛投完票的人其投票意向的民意調查。）
厄伯莫維茲說，在共和黨總統候選人最後勝出的幾個具有關鍵性的搖擺州，如威斯康辛(Wisconsin)、賓夕法尼亞(Pennsylvania)和密西根(Michigan)，民調尤其不準確，但佛羅里達(Florida)的民調則「相當接近」最後結果。
為何大多數的民調會誤判選舉結果，連具民調專業代表地位的美國民意研究學會(American Association for Public Opinion Research)也一頭霧水(at a loss)。
學會主席羅傑‧托蘭格(Roger Tourangeau)在接受《美國之音》(VOA)的訪問時表示：「這看起來是民調業相當嚴重的錯誤，但還沒有人知道到底是怎麼發生的。」
根據賓州州立大學(Pennsylvania State University)的民調專家艾瑞克‧普魯茲(Eric Plutzer)的說法，對於威斯康辛、密西根、佛羅里達、賓夕法尼亞和俄亥俄這幾個搖擺州的票數以及全國的票數，大多數的民調專家都少算了2%至4%，而且這些民調的誤差幅度(margin of error)似乎都不在以往的誤差範圍內。
普魯茲向《美國之音》表示：「川普在選舉人團(Electoral College)的票數贏的幅度不小(win…by a comfortable margin)，這更放大(magnify)了民調的錯誤，儘管川普明顯地輸了全國總票數。」
（編按：美國總統選舉的制度是先由每州舉行公民投票的普選(popular vote)後，再由每州的選舉人(elector)依照該州普選的民意投下美國總統票。在此制度下，可能出現某候選人在人口數多的州獲得很高的選民支持度，贏得相當大的票數差距，使其在全國總票數勝出，但計算各州的選舉人票時，卻仍然失利的情況。這種憲政設計在全國總票數結果和選舉人票數結果不一致時最容易被提出來討論。但理論上普遍仍認為，這樣的設計可以讓美國聯邦制下各州的民意更充分地彰顯，使每一州處於更平等的地位。）
美國民意研究學會表示，將會研究這次的選舉結果，並在明年初針對研究結果發表一份正式的研究報告。
學會主席托蘭格接受《美國之音》訪問時表示，報告內容將確認，民調在調查對象的選擇上是否存在系統性偏差，並且證實執行調查的模式（即電話訪問調查、自動語音調查或線上樣本調查）的確存有系統性差別的可能，同時將查明支持川普的選民是否較不願表態。
「很多人都在懷疑川普有許多低調的支持者，認為他們口頭上說要投給希拉蕊，但實際上卻投給川普。」托蘭格如此表示。
普魯茲認為，無論學會做出怎樣的結論報告，民意調查在未來仍有很大的需求。
他表示：「大眾對於民調有一種無法滿足的(insatiable)需求，而且這種需求不太可能消失，像這次的選舉就有超過一千個以上全國性的賽馬式民調(horse-race poll)。」（編按：「賽馬式民調」常出現於選舉相關報導，報導的焦點在於選舉的熱門人選、候選人支持度的起落，或是候選人的支持率或當選率之分析等等。)
普魯茲補充說，民調產業將被迫得發展出創新的(innovative)、更能了解一般選民想法的民調，而非只是調查出候選人在力拚勝選過程中的情勢而已。
Language Notes
decipher (v) 辨認；破解，破譯
defy (v) 對抗；違抗；反抗
chalk something up (v) 獲（勝）；得（分）
capitalize on (v) 利用……獲益；從……中獲利
electorate (n) 全體選民
*注意本字是集合名詞，使用時經常加the
resent[rɪ`zɛnt] (v) 感到憤恨；不滿；憎惡
*注意本字重音在第二音節
offset (v) 補償；抵消；彌補
turnout (n) 到場人數；（尤指）投票人數
skeptical (a) 懷疑的，持懷疑態度的
fare (v) 成功；遭遇
*本字常搭配副詞badly或well使用， “fare badly”表示「情況不好」，“fare well”表示「情況不錯、還好」；本字亦常作名詞使用，是「車費；車票價」的意思
magnify (v) 放大，擴大
insatiable (a) （尤指慾望或需求）無法滿足的，貪得無厭的
*本字的字根為動詞satiate「使飽足；充分滿足」，加上形容詞字尾 -able成為形容詞satiable「可滿足的」，再加上具否定含意的in- 字首則形成本字
Check your vocabulary!
Fill in the blanks with a word or phrase from the list above. Make necessary changes. After you finish, highlight the blanks to reveal the hidden answers.
She bitterly resented her father's new wife.
The extra cost of travelling to work is offset by the lower price of houses here.
She capitalized on her knowledge and experience to get a better job.
Today's victory is the fifth that the Irish team has chalked up this year.
Good weather on polling day should ensure a good turnout.
Like so many politicians, he had an insatiable appetite for power.
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